Modeling climate change impact on agro-ecosystem services

Publication date: 24/07/2023
Extent: 46 pages

Contributions by: Charlotte Weil, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland; Justin A. Johnson, University of Minnesota, USA; and Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, University of Minnesota and SPRING, USA

Chapter synopsis:

Agricultural landscapes are critical to producing food, and other ecosystem services - the vital benefits that flow from ecosystems to people. This chapter reviews how multiple ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change, broadly concluding that most impacts tend to be negative both on supporting services for agricultural production and co-benefits of agroecosystems. Systemic approaches to modeling food provision as an ecosystem service while integrating climate and societal changes are investigated; global statistical models are promising to account for climate via yields responses in “climate-analogs” areas; in particular a novel approach aggregating yields to focus on nutrition, assuming crop mix adaptation. Finally, to reach indicators relevant to human well-being, yields projections must be translated to benefit-relevant metrics, e.g., caloric sufficiency. The ecosystem service perspective invites to adopt a holistic view, both of the drivers, accounting for cohesive scenarios of changes, and of the response variable, integrating the demand-side.

DOI: 10.19103/AS.2022.0115.11