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Accounting for uncertainties in modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture

Code: 9781801469074
Publication date: 24/07/2023
Extent: 22 pages

Contributions by: Fulu Tao, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China and Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Finland; Taru Palosuo, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Finland; and Reimund Paul Rötter, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS) and University of Göttingen, Germany

Chapter synopsis:

Model-based climate change impact assessments involve uncertainties given the many physical, biological and socio-economic processes involved and their complexity. Among other things, uncertainties arise from unknown future development of greenhouse gas emissions and uncertainties in climate change scenarios, input data, model structures and parameters, human error, as well as how adaptations and socio-economic development are taken into account. This chapter reviews recent progress in quantifying or reducing these uncertainties.



DOI: 10.19103/AS.2022.0115.07
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Table of contents
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Managing uncertainties from greenhouse gas emission and climate change scenarios
  • 3 Managing uncertainties from crop model input data
  • 4 Managing uncertainties from model parameters and human error
  • 5 Managing uncertainties from model structures
  • 6 Managing uncertainties from adaptations in agricultural practices
  • 7 Reducing model uncertainties
  • 8 Conclusion and future trends
  • 9 Acknowledgements
  • 10 Where to look for further information
  • 11 References

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